In this Working Paper, Dr Mike Lauder explores the systemic failures of the IPP sentence using Disaster Incubation Theory.
Disaster Incubation Theory (DIT), developed by Barry Turner (1978), describes six stages in the development of systemic failures, including a failure to foresee risks, an incubation period of growing problems, an eventual crisis, and the creation of a New Normal. Lauder adapts this theory to analyse why the Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentence has failed.
Introduced under the Criminal Justice Act 2003, IPP was designed to protect the public by keeping offenders in custody until deemed safe for release. However, despite its abolition in 2012, there are still 2,614 IPP prisoners (1,045 unreleased and 1,569 recalled) and, of those unreleased, 99 per cent have served time beyond their tariff.
Lauder argues that the Ministry of Justice (the 'process owner') failed to anticipate the unintended consequences of IPP sentences, particularly its psychological impact and systemic inefficiencies.
Attempts to reform the system (referred to as 'recovery windows'), such as the Lockyer Review (2007), the abolition of IPP in 2012, and the Justice Committee’s 2022 report, have not resolved the IPP issue.
Rather than simply correcting faults in the system, Lauder suggests that a more fundamental rethinking of the IPP framework is required. He argues that the legal system should be treated with the same rigour as safety-critical systems. He writes:
One of the conclusions that may be drawn from this assessment is that maybe the legal systems should face the same degree of scrutiny and rigour as do safety critical systems, as system failures can cause a great deal of unintended harm to individuals in their care.
The Centre for Crime and Justice Studies’ working paper series publishes research and analysis of an exploratory nature. Working papers are not formally peer-reviewed, but are intended to stimulate reflection and discussion on current and relevant areas.
