Accuracy in criminal statistics matters

Much of this concern has been in relation to women’s prisons, where the desire of some male prisoners who identify as or claim to be women clashes with a perfectly reasonable expectation of privacy and dignity for female prisoners.

More recently, the case of Scarlet Blake – a male whose murder of Jorge Martin Carreno has been recorded as having been committed by a female – raises important questions about the accuracy and integrity of official statistics.

One of the few things that criminologists will agree on is birth-sex is the single most important determinant of whether a person will be prosecuted or convicted of a crime. Males account for 75 per cent of all convictions each year. They account for 93 per cent of all murder convictions and more than 99 per cent of all rape convictions.

So I was pleased to be asked by The Telegraph to write about why it matters that crimes committed by male are recorded as having been committed by a female. Here’s a summary of what I wrote. You can read the full article here.

Some argue that criminal statistics should reflect how suspects see themselves: an exercise in recognition and respect. The problem here is that criminal statistics are compiled to inform, and to assist in the development of effective policies, not to affirm feelings.

Others argue that, with so few males who identify as women and girls convicted of offences each year, the impact on the accuracy of criminal statistics, if the occasional male crime is classed as a female one, is negligible. In fact, it matters a lot.

In the case of murder convictions, for instance, in the ten years to June 2023:

• 88 per cent (2,840) were of men
• 6 per cent (201) were of boys

Indeed, more boys were convicted of murder than all women and girls: only 187 in all.

Class just one male convicted of murder as female, and the total annual number of female murder convictions goes up by around 5 per cent. Class just one murder by a boy as if it was convicted by a girl, and the number of murders committed by girls doubles or more.

Take another offence: rape. Over the 10 years to June 2023, there were 49 convictions for rape where the defendant was classed as female. Male convictions for rape are of a different magnitude: 10,973 in total, more than 99 per cent of all rape convictions.

But hang on, in English law, only males can commit rape, so who are these 49 females? There's only really two answers:

• they are female co-accused alongside a male principle offender, or
• they are male perpetrators who have been classed as female

More likely, it’s a bit of a both of the these things.

So, how many are female co-accused alongside a male principle offender, and how many are male perpetrators classed as female? Who knows, such is the confusion in the official statistics.

Classing just a few males convicted of rape as female renders the statistics on female convictions useless. And the reality is, it’s almost certainly already happening.

Over the 10 years to June 2023, there were also 14 convictions for rape where the sex of the defendant was classed as “not known”.

Was this poor record-keeping, or were these male offenders who identify as women, who police forces did not want to record as male? Again, who knows.

The practice, by police forces and other criminal justice agencies, of recording some males who come across their books as female undermines the integrity of criminal statistics in general, and the data on female suspects, defendants and offenders in particular.

It is also terrible for public understanding of crime and who commits it, as well as for the development of effective and grounded policies to address it.