Centre for Crime and Justice Studies analysis of homicide trends (04/09/07)
As concerns grow about recent cases of homicide involving young people as victims, the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies at King's College London releases an analysis of recent trends in homicide in England and Wales (1). The analysis, based on published Home Office figures (2), shows that, contrary to the commonsense view, the numbers of child victims of has fallen in recent years. It also indicates that that age group most at risk of homicide are babies under the age of one.
The main points of the analysis are:
- 63 children aged 1 to 15 were recorded by the police as being victims of homicide in 1995, compared with 31 in 2005/06
- 17 babies under the age of one were recorded as homicide victims in 1995. This had risen to 24 by 2005/06.
- The group that had experienced the most significant rise in homicide victimisation were the 16-49 age range, up from 429 in 1995 to 513 in 2005/06.
These changes should be viewed against the background of a generally rising trend in homicide over recent decades, analysed in detail in a paper published by the Crime and Society Foundation in 2005 (3). That study pointed out risk of homicide during that period was very unevenly distributed. Those living in the richest neighbourhoods has seen their risk of homicide fall. Those living in the poorest neighbourhoods had seen their risk of homicide rise dramatically.
The study also identified a so-called 'cohort effect', in which a particular age group - notably those who had entered into the jobs market during the recession of the early 1980s, had an elevated risk of being victims of homicide that had remained with them through their lives. The data released today, which shows a rising homicide trend among the 16-49 age range, reinforces this analysis.
Richard Garside, director of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, which published the report, said:
'Despite the common perception, fewer children were victims of homicide last year than was the case a decade ago. We do not yet have reliable data to
tell us if the recent killings of children and young people represents a reversal of this downward trend, or whether the reporting of such incidents simply makes it appear that way. What will shock many people is the sad fact that babies under one remain the age group most at risk of violent death at the hands of another.
'While overall homicide levels have stabilised in recent years, following a rising trend during the 1980s and 1990s, they are at much higher levels than was the case a generation ago. Today in Britain, 200 to 300 more of our
fellow citizens meet a violent death than was the case in the mid 1970s.
'There is growing evidence of a strong link between rising levels of poverty and inequality and the increased rates of homicide. This places economic and social policy, rather than the criminal justice system, in the forefront of
any serious attempt to deal with the disturbing levels of risk and violence that currently affects far too many people in Britain today.'
For further information please contact:
Contact: Richard Garside, 07989 474 610 or Will McMahon, 07968 950 223
Notes to editors:
- The age breakdown for individuals recorded by the police as homicide
victims in England and Wales is as follows:
Age 1995 1996 1997 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01* 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Under 1 17 27 32 29 37 31 48 16 30 27 23 24 1 to 15 63 53 50 42 45 34 49 47 59 45 35 31 16 to 49 429 398 398 407 397 456 500 564 511 531 524 513 50 and over 153 107 129 130 167 154 116 176 352 185 194 143 - Analysis based on Coleman, K., K. Jansson, P. Kaiza, E. Reed (2007), Homicides, Firearm Offences and Intimate Violence 2005/2006, Home Office Statistical Bulletin 02/07, Table 1.07.
- The Crime and Society Foundation, a strategic project of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, published an analysis of homicide trends in Britain between 1979 and 1999 It comprises chapter two of the 2005 publication, Criminal Obsessions.
- The Centre for Crime and Justice Studies at King's College London is an independent charity that informs and educates about all aspects of crime and criminal justice. It provides information, produces research and carries out policy analysis to encourage and facilitate an understanding of the complex nature of issues concerning crime. It is a membership organisation working with practitioners, policy makers, academics and students, the media and voluntary sector, offering a programme of events, publications and online resources.
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